Cronkite/Eight Poll: Obama surges to nearly even with McCain in Arizona

With BC-CNS-Poll-Box

Multimedia: KAET’s “Horizon” has posted its video coverage of the poll results here. It also can be embedded on Web sites.

By GREG LINDSAY
Cronkite News Service

PHOENIX (Tuesday, Oct. 28) _ Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has pulled nearly even in John McCain’s home state as more Arizona voters decide he can better deal with the nation’s financial meltdown, an organizer of the Cronkite/Eight Poll said Tuesday.

“Whether it’s fair or not, when we’re in a financial crisis we tend to blame the ones in charge, and John McCain’s party are the ones in charge,” said Tara Blanc, the poll’s associate director.

In the Cronkite/Eight Poll released Tuesday, 46 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for McCain, while 44 percent said they would vote for Obama. That’s within the poll’s margin for error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Nine percent of those surveyed were undecided.

Thirty-six percent of those polled said the financial crisis and market downturn had affected their families a great deal, while 39 percent said their families had been affected somewhat. Twenty-five percent said their families hadn’t been affected much.

Obama also was gaining among independents and women, Blanc said.

In late September, McCain’s lead in the Cronkite/Eight Poll stood at 7 points. It was 10 points in August.

Dave Cieslak, communications director for Obama’s Arizona campaign, called the results motivating for supporters and volunteers.

“There is still a lot of work to be done, though, and still a lot of doors to knock on,” he said.

Kurt Davis, a co-leader of McCain’s Arizona campaign, said all polls will seem closer at this point.

“Track polling is interesting political discussion, but when you’re running a campaign it is unreliable,” Davis said. “We take most of these things with a grain of salt.”

On Monday, Rasmussen Reports, a national polling firm, reported McCain leading by 5 points, down from 21 points in late September.

The Cronkite/Eight Poll found that 62 percent of registered voters, regardless of party ties, believe Obama will win the presidency, while 20 percent said they expect McCain to win.

The poll also showed that voters are more certain of whom they will vote for on Nov. 4.

Ninety-four percent of those who said they will vote for Obama reported feeling strongly that they wouldn’t change their decision, up from 86 percent in late September. Ninety-three percent of McCain voters said they felt strongly they wouldn’t change their minds, up from 80 percent in late September.

The poll, conducted Thursday to Sunday by Arizona State University’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication and public television station Eight/KAET, involved 1,019 registered Arizona voters. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Cronkite School operates Cronkite News Service.

The poll also found that:

_ Fifty-one percent of voters oppose and 27 percent support Proposition 105, which would require that ballot initiatives involving taxes, fees or new spending earn a majority of the state’s registered voters rather than a majority of those voting;

_Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio led Democrat Dan Saban 56 percent to 35 percent;

_ Incumbent Republican Andrew Thomas led Democrat Tim Nelson 42 percent to 35 percent in the race for Maricopa County attorney.