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By Phineas Hogan
Cronkite News

WASHINGTON – Kari Lake has consistently underperformed Donald Trump in Arizona, an anemic showing that spells trouble for Republicans hoping to nab the state’s open U.S. Senate seat.

A Fox News poll of Arizona voters on Aug. 28 showed Lake lagging Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego by 15 percentage points, even as the former president remained virtually tied with Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race.

Other polls also find a persistent gap between Trump’s support and hers in Arizona, which bodes well for Democrats who would almost certainly lose control of the Senate without the Arizona seat.

The Lake campaign rejects the accuracy of polls that show her trailing Gallego, though the apparent gap is no surprise to some Arizona political activists – including some who support Lake.

During the Senate primary, she called a sheriff vying with her for the nomination a “coward.” Earlier this year, she forced out a popular state GOP chair. In 2022, she offended supporters of Arizona icon John McCain by saying they should “get the hell out” of the Republican Party.

“She’s probably the most divisive figure in Republican politics,” said longtime conservative consultant Sean Noble, who endorsed her last month. “She has gone out of her way to poke the eye of Republican voters who she should be trying to embrace.”

The Lake campaign declined to discuss the gap between her support and Trump’s.

“Recent polls show Kari Lake statistically tied with Gallego,” spokesperson Alex Nicoll said by email, referring to internal polling and a Sept. 4 CNN survey that put Gallego in the lead 47-43, a tie given the 4.8 percentage point margin of error. That poll showed Trump ahead by 5.

Trump has tried to confer his relative popularity on the former Phoenix TV anchor Lake. He endorsed Lake the day she launched her Senate bid last October and has showcased her repeatedly in Arizona, including twice in the past month.

“She’s tough on the border” and “a fantastic person,” Trump told a rally last Thursday in Tucson.

Lake blistered Democrats as “inept, unqualified fools” and exhorted the crowd: “Let’s say adios to Ruben!”

But Lake has yet to nail down all of Trump’s supporters, despite his efforts.

Some anti-Lake Republicans remain bitter about her attack on Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb during the primary, when she called him “a total coward.” The attack wasn’t about his law enforcement record but about staying mum as she pressed unsubstantiated claims that a conspiracy cost her the 2022 governor’s race.

Lake won the primary by less than 70,000 votes, which was seen as weak for a former nominee for governor.

Sheriffs across the state condemned Lake’s attack at the time. “Arizona voters expect better from a political candidate, especially when they are running for the U.S. Senate,” they said in a statement.

Lamb has tried to help. He endorsed her soon after the primary. On Friday, he appeared with her at a Back the Blue rally in Chandler where he emphasized her support for law enforcement.

Lake drew Trump’s attention as a high-profile advocate of his false claims about the 2020 election – Trump lost Arizona by about 10,000 votes – and he backed her bid for governor.

She lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs by about 17,000 votes out of 2.5 million. She has lost numerous court challenges but continues to claim she was cheated.

In February, Lake tried to walk back the attack on McCain and his supporters in hopes of building bridges with more traditional conservatives. Meghan McCain, daughter of the late senator, rejected the olive branch in no uncertain terms.

That was weeks after Lake alienated many Arizona Republican activists by forcing out Jeff DeWit, a former Trump aide who’d been elected state GOP chair two months earlier in a landslide.

She sent news outlets a recording from March 2023 of a conversation in which DeWit offered her a job and money to stay out of the Senate race.

“There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” DeWit told her.

She vehemently rejected the offer: “I’m a great candidate. People love me.”

DeWit resigned after she threatened to release an even more damning recording.

Some Lake supporters dispute that she has an image problem within the party.

“People, I’m just tellin’ ya, they love her,” said Lisa Green, chair of the Navajo County Republican Party, who said she doesn’t know anyone who supports Trump but not Lake.

The polls show that such voters are out there, though, in numbers large enough to tip the outcome.

A poll released by the Trafalgar Group on Sept. 14 showed Trump ahead by 1 percentage point while Lake trailed by 4.

The campaign called the Sept. 4 CNN poll in which Lake lagged 47-43 “another testament to the strength of Kari Lake.”

After an Aug. 29 poll from The Hill put Trump ahead by 3 and Lake behind by 7 – a 10-point gap – her campaign insisted the race remained a statistical dead heat.

Aides cited a poll commissioned by the campaign that put Lake ahead 46-41, with respondents told that Gallego “is a radical liberal Democrat” who “has voted for higher taxes and open borders throughout his career,” and supports “giving illegal immigrants the right to vote” and “allowing biological men to compete in women’s sport.”

The friction with Lamb continues to hang over the campaign.

At a rally at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale on Aug. 23, Trump called Gallego “a fricking loser.” And the president of the Arizona Police Association, Justin Harris, told the crowd that “if you support law enforcement and safe communities, vote Trump.”

The group represents over 12,000 law enforcement personnel and had supported Lake for governor.

But three days after the Trump rally, it endorsed Gallego, calling him a leader who can bring people together.

Former state Sen. Sue Donahue, a Sun City West Republican who backs both Lake and Trump, attributes much of the gap between their poll numbers to Lamb supporters who haven’t yet forgiven Lake.

“I think those Trump voters really wanted Sheriff Lamb,” she said. “I don’t know if they would vote for Gallego. They may not want to vote for Kari Lake, and they’ll leave it blank.”

Other Republicans have opted to switch sides.

“Ms. Lake is not a consensus builder,” said Phoenix lawyer Patrick McGroder III, a Republican who opposes both Lake and Trump.

Lake, he said, has proven she cannot “sit in the same room with people of opposite views,” which he sees as an essential quality of an effective politician.

“They’re going to come after us with everything,” Lake said in April at a Lake Havasu City rally, suggesting that supporters should “strap on a Glock” to prepare for the election.

The night she won the GOP primary on July 30, she said, “This is not a battle between Democrats and Republicans. This is a battle between good and evil.”

McGroder is part of Republicans and Independents for Ruben, a group of over 40 business, political and community leaders.

Lake just pushes people away, said Mesa Councilmember Julie Spilsbury, a self-described moderate Republican who is also part of the pro-Gallego group.

“The only way to get anything done in this country is to work with people with different opinions,” she said.

Trump himself has expressed concern that Lake might drag him down in November, the Washington Post reported in April.

Democrats are eager to exploit the gap, their chief Senate strategist said.

The chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan, said he’s optimistic about Arizona because on a “spectrum of flawed and deeply flawed, Kari Lake is pushing the deeply flawed boundary,” he told Cronkite News.

“That’s how Ruben will be able to get voters who may be voting differently in the presidential election,” Peters said.

For more stories from Cronkite News, visit cronkitenews.azpbs.org.